Impact of the UK soft drinks industry levy on health and health inequalities in children and adolescents in England: An interrupted time series analysis and population health modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) in the United Kingdom has led to a significant reduction in household purchasing of sugar in drinks. In this study, we examined the potential medium- and long-term implications for health and health inequalities among children and adolescents in England. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis to measure the effects of the SDIL on the amount of sugar per household per week from soft drinks purchased, 19 months post implementation and by index of multiple deprivation (IMD) quintile in England. We modelled the effect of observed sugar reduction on body mass index (BMI), dental caries, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in children and adolescents (0 to 17 years) by IMD quintile over the first 10 years following announcement (March 2016) and implementation (April 2018) of the SDIL. Using a lifetable model, we simulated the potential long-term impact of these changes on life expectancy for the current birth cohort and, using regression models with results from the IMD-specific lifetable models, we calculated the impact of the SDIL on the slope index of inequality (SII) in life expectancy. The SDIL was found to have reduced sugar from purchased drinks in England by 15 g/household/week (95% confidence interval: -10.3 to -19.7). The model predicts these reductions in sugar will lead to 3,600 (95% uncertainty interval: 946 to 6,330) fewer dental caries and 64,100 (54,400 to 73,400) fewer children and adolescents classified as overweight or obese, in the first 10 years after implementation. The changes in sugar purchasing and predicted impacts on health are largest for children and adolescents in the most deprived areas (Q1: 11,000 QALYs [8,370 to 14,100] and Q2: 7,760 QALYs [5,730 to 9,970]), while children and adolescents in less deprived areas will likely experience much smaller simulated effects (Q3: -1,830 QALYs [-3,260 to -501], Q4: 652 QALYs [-336 to 1,680], Q5: 1,860 QALYs [929 to 2,890]). If the simulated effects of the SDIL are sustained over the life course, it is predicted there will be a small but significant reduction in slope index of inequality: 0.76% (95% uncertainty interval: -0.9 to -0.62) for females and 0.94% (-1.1 to -0.76) for males. CONCLUSIONS: We predict that the SDIL will lead to medium-term reductions in dental caries and overweight/obesity, and long-term improvements in life expectancy, with the greatest benefits projected for children and adolescents from more deprived areas. This study provides evidence that the SDIL could narrow health inequalities for children and adolescents in England.

Short-term impacts of Universal Basic Income on population mental health inequalities in the UK: A microsimulation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Population mental health in the United Kingdom (UK) has deteriorated, alongside worsening socioeconomic conditions, over the last decade. Policies such as Universal Basic Income (UBI) have been suggested as an alternative economic approach to improve population mental health and reduce health inequalities. UBI may improve mental health (MH), but to our knowledge, no studies have trialled or modelled UBI in whole populations. We aimed to estimate the short-term effects of introducing UBI on mental health in the UK working-age population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Adults aged 25 to 64 years were simulated across a 4-year period from 2022 to 2026 with the SimPaths microsimulation model, which models the effects of UK tax/benefit policies on mental health via income, poverty, and employment transitions. Data from the nationally representative UK Household Longitudinal Study were used to generate the simulated population (n = 25,000) and causal effect estimates. Three counterfactual UBI scenarios were modelled from 2023: "Partial" (value equivalent to existing benefits), "Full" (equivalent to the UK Minimum Income Standard), and "Full+" (retaining means-tested benefits for disability, housing, and childcare). Likely common mental disorder (CMD) was measured using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12, score ≥4). Relative and slope indices of inequality were calculated, and outcomes stratified by gender, age, education, and household structure. Simulations were run 1,000 times to generate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Sensitivity analyses relaxed SimPaths assumptions about reduced employment resulting from Full/Full+ UBI. Partial UBI had little impact on poverty, employment, or mental health. Full UBI scenarios practically eradicated poverty but decreased employment (for Full+ from 78.9% [95% UI 77.9, 79.9] to 74.1% [95% UI 72.6, 75.4]). Full+ UBI increased absolute CMD prevalence by 0.38% (percentage points; 95% UI 0.13, 0.69) in 2023, equivalent to 157,951 additional CMD cases (95% UI 54,036, 286,805); effects were largest for men (0.63% [95% UI 0.31, 1.01]) and those with children (0.64% [95% UI 0.18, 1.14]). In our sensitivity analysis assuming minimal UBI-related employment impacts, CMD prevalence instead fell by 0.27% (95% UI -0.49, -0.05), a reduction of 112,228 cases (95% UI 20,783, 203,673); effects were largest for women (-0.32% [95% UI -0.65, 0.00]), those without children (-0.40% [95% UI -0.68, -0.15]), and those with least education (-0.42% [95% UI -0.97, 0.15]). There was no effect on educational mental health inequalities in any scenario, and effects waned by 2026. The main limitations of our methods are the model's short time horizon and focus on pathways from UBI to mental health solely via income, poverty, and employment, as well as the inability to integrate macroeconomic consequences of UBI; future iterations of the model will address these limitations. CONCLUSIONS: UBI has potential to improve short-term population mental health by reducing poverty, particularly for women, but impacts are highly dependent on whether individuals choose to remain in employment following its introduction. Future research modelling additional causal pathways between UBI and mental health would be beneficial.

Management of antipsychotics in primary care: Insights from healthcare professionals and policy makers in the United Kingdom.

INTRODUCTION: Antipsychotic medication is increasingly prescribed to patients with serious mental illness. Patients with serious mental illness often have cardiovascular and metabolic comorbidities, and antipsychotics independently increase the risk of cardiometabolic disease. Despite this, many patients prescribed antipsychotics are discharged to primary care without planned psychiatric review. We explore perceptions of healthcare professionals and managers/directors of policy regarding reasons for increasing prevalence and management of antipsychotics in primary care. METHODS: Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews with 11 general practitioners (GPs), 8 psychiatrists, and 11 managers/directors of policy in the United Kingdom. Data was analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Respondents reported competency gaps that impaired ability to manage patients prescribed antipsychotic medications, arising from inadequate postgraduate training and professional development. GPs lacked confidence to manage antipsychotic medications alone; psychiatrists lacked skills to address cardiometabolic risks and did not perceive this as their role. Communication barriers, lack of integrated care records, limited psychology provision, lowered expectation towards patients with serious mental illness by professionals, and pressure to discharge from hospital resulted in patients in primary care becoming 'trapped' on antipsychotics, inhibiting opportunities to deprescribe. Organisational and contractual barriers between services exacerbate this risk, with socioeconomic deprivation and lack of access to non-pharmacological interventions driving overprescribing. Professionals voiced fears of censure if a catastrophic event occurred after stopping an antipsychotic. Facilitators to overcome these barriers were suggested. CONCLUSIONS: People prescribed antipsychotics experience a fragmented health system and suboptimal care. Several interventions could be taken to improve care for this population, but inadequate availability of non-pharmacological interventions and socioeconomic factors increasing mental distress need policy change to improve outcomes. The role of professionals' fear of medicolegal or regulatory censure inhibiting antipsychotic deprescribing was a new finding in this study.

The impact of the cost-of-living crisis on population health in the UK: rapid evidence review.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, unique and unforeseen factors, including COVID-19, Brexit, and Ukraine-Russia war, have resulted in an unprecedented cost of living crisis, creating a second health emergency. We present, one of the first rapid reviews with the aim of examining the impact of this current crisis, at a population level. We reviewed published literature, as well as grey literature, examining a broad range of physical and mental impacts on health in the short, mid, and long term, identifying those most at risk, impacts on system partners, including emergency services and the third sector, as well as mitigation strategies. METHODS: We conducted a rapid review by searching PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE, and HMIC (2020 to 2023). We searched for grey literature on Google and hand-searched the reports of relevant public health organisations. We included interventional and observational studies that reported outcomes of interventions aimed at mitigating against the impacts of cost of living at a population level. RESULTS: We found that the strongest evidence was for the impact of cold and mouldy homes on respiratory-related infections and respiratory conditions. Those at an increased risk were young children (0-4 years), the elderly (aged 75 and over), as well as those already vulnerable, including those with long-term multimorbidity. Further short-term impacts include an increased risk of physical pain including musculoskeletal and chest pain, and increased risk of enteric infections and malnutrition. In the mid-term, we could see increases in hypertension, transient ischaemic attacks, and myocardial infarctions, and respiratory illnesses. In the long term we could see an increase in mortality and morbidity rates from respiratory and cardiovascular disease, as well as increase rates of suicide and self-harm and infectious disease outcomes. Changes in behaviour are likely particularly around changes in food buying patterns and the ability to heat a home. System partners are also impacted, with voluntary sectors seeing fewer volunteers, an increase in petty crime and theft, alternative heating appliances causing fires, and an increase in burns and burn-related admissions. To mitigate against these impacts, support should be provided, to the most vulnerable, to help increase disposable income, reduce energy bills, and encourage home improvements linked with energy efficiency. Stronger links to bridge voluntary, community, charity and faith groups are needed to help provide additional aid and support. CONCLUSION: Although the CoL crisis affects the entire population, the impacts are exacerbated in those that are most vulnerable, particularly young children, single parents, multigenerational families. More can be done at a community and societal level to support the most vulnerable, and those living with long-term multimorbidity. This review consolidates the current evidence on the impacts of the cost of living crisis and may enable decision makers to target limited resources more effectively.

The incidence, clinical features, and management of essential infantile esotropia in the United Kingdom. A British Ophthalmology Surveillance Unit (BOSU) study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: A national study was undertaken through the British ophthalmology surveillance unit (BOSU) to determine the incidence, presenting features and management of essential infantile esotropia (EIE) in the UK. METHODS: Data from a prospective national observational study of newly diagnosed EIE presenting to clinicians in the United Kingdom over a 12-month period were collected. Cases with a confirmed diagnosis by a clinician of a constant, non-accommodative esotropia ≥20 prism dioptres (PD), presenting at ≤12 months, with no neurological or ocular abnormalities were identified through BOSU. Follow-up data were collected at 12 months. RESULTS: A total of 57 cases were reported giving an incidence of EIE of 1 in 12,828 live births. The mean age of diagnosis and intervention were 7.05 ± 2.6 months (range 2-12) and 14.7 ± 4.9 months (range 6.5-28.1), respectively. Management was surgical in 59.6%, botulinum toxin alone in 22.8%, and 17.5% were observed. The preoperative angle of esotropia was smaller in the observation group (P = 0.04). The postoperative angle of esotropia was not statistically significant between botulinum toxin or surgery (P = 0.3), although the age of intervention was earlier in the botulinum group (P = 0.007). Early intervention (before 12 months of age) did not influence the post-intervention motor outcomes between 0 and 10 prism dioptres of esotropia (P = 0.78). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of EIE in the UK is considerably lower than reported in other population-based studies. The preferred method of treatment was surgical with earlier intervention in those treated with botulinum toxin. An early age of intervention (<12 months) did not influence motor outcomes.

Prescribing trends of proton pump inhibitors and histamine blockers among children in the United Kingdom (1998-2019): A population-based assessment.

PURPOSE: To describe the prescribing trends of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and H2 receptor antagonists (H2 RAs) among children with gastroesophageal reflux in the United Kingdom between 1998 and 2019. METHODS: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink that included all children aged ≤18 years with a first ever diagnosis of gastroesophageal reflux between 1998 and 2019. Using negative binomial regression, we estimated crude and adjusted annual prescription rates per 1000 person-years and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for PPIs and H2 RAs. We also assessed rate ratios of PPIs and H2 RAs prescription rates to examine changes in prescribing over time. RESULTS: Our cohort included 177 477 children with a first ever diagnosis of gastroesophageal reflux during the study period. The median age was 13 years (IQR: 1, 17) among children prescribed PPIs and 0.2 years (IQR: 0.1, 0.6) among those prescribed H2 RAs. The total prescription rate of all GERD drugs was 1468 prescriptions per 1000 person-years (PYs) (95% CI 1463-1472). Overall, PPIs had a higher prescription rate (815 per 1000 PYs, 95% CI 812-818) than H2 RAs (653 per 1000 PYs 95% CI 650-655). Sex- and age-adjusted rate ratios of 2019 versus 1998 demonstrated a 10% increase and a 76% decrease in the prescription rates of PPIs and H2 RAs, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Prescription rates for PPIs increased, especially during the first half of the study period, while prescription rates for H2 RA decreased over time.

Early educational attainment in children with major congenital anomaly in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: To describe early educational attainment and special educational needs (SEN) provision in children with major congenital anomaly (CA) compared with peers. DESIGN: Analysis of educational data linked to the ongoing Born in Bradford cohort study. Confounders were identified via causal inference methods and multivariable logistic regression performed. SETTING: Children born in Bradford Royal Infirmary (BRI), West Yorkshire. PATIENTS: All women planning to give birth at BRI and attending antenatal clinic from March 2007 to December 2010 were eligible. 12 453 women with 13 776 pregnancies (>80% of those attending) were recruited. Records of 555 children with major CA and 11 188 without were linked to primary education records. OUTCOMES: Key Stage 1 (KS1) attainment at age 6-7 years in Maths, Reading, Writing and Science. SEN provision from age 4 to 7 years. RESULTS: 41% of children with major CA received SEN provision (compared with 14% without), and 48% performed below expected standards in at least one KS1 domain (compared with 29% without). The adjusted odds of children with CA receiving SEN provision and failing to achieve the expected standard at KS1 were, respectively, 4.30 (95% CI 3.49 to 5.31) and 3.06 (95% CI 2.47 to 3.79) times greater than their peers. Those with genetic, heart, neurological, urinary, gastrointestinal and limb anomalies had significantly poorer academic achievement. CONCLUSIONS: These novel results demonstrate that poor educational attainment extends to children with urinary, limb and gastrointestinal CAs. We demonstrate the need for collaboration between health and education services to assess and support children with major CA, so every CA survivor can maximise their potential.

Risk assessment and real-world outcomes in chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension: insights from a UK pulmonary hypertension referral service.

OBJECTIVES: This study was conducted to evaluate the ability of risk assessment to predict healthcare resource utilisation (HCRU), costs, treatments, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and survival in patients diagnosed with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: Pulmonary hypertension referral centre in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Adults diagnosed with CTEPH between 1 January 2012 and 30 June 2019 were included. Cohorts were retrospectively defined for operated patients (received pulmonary endarterectomy (PEA)) and not operated; further subgroups were defined based on risk score (low, intermediate or high risk for 1-year mortality) at diagnosis. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Demographics, clinical characteristics, comorbidities, treatment patterns, HRQoL, HCRU, costs and survival outcomes were analysed. RESULTS: Overall, 683 patients were analysed (268 (39%) operated; 415 (61%) not operated). Most patients in the operated and not-operated cohorts were intermediate risk (63%; 53%) or high risk (23%; 31%) at diagnosis. Intermediate-risk and high-risk patients had higher HCRU and costs than low-risk patients. Outpatient and accident and emergency visits were lower postdiagnosis for both cohorts and all risk groups versus prediagnosis. HRQoL scores noticeably improved in the operated cohort post-PEA, and less so in the not-operated cohort at 6-18 months postdiagnosis. Survival at 5 years was 83% (operated) and 49% (not operated) and was lower for intermediate-risk and high-risk patients compared with low-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study support that risk assessment at diagnosis is prognostic for mortality in patients with CTEPH. Low-risk patients have better survival and HRQoL and lower HCRU and costs compared with intermediate-risk and high-risk patients.

The carbon footprint of different modes of birth in the UK and the Netherlands: An exploratory study using life cycle assessment.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the carbon footprint of caesarean and vaginal birth. DESIGN: Life cycle assessment (LCA). SETTING: Tertiary maternity units and home births in the UK and the Netherlands. POPULATION: Birthing women. METHODS: A cradle-to-grave LCA using openLCA software to model the carbon footprint of different modes of delivery in the UK and the Netherlands. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 'Carbon footprint' (in kgCO2 equivalents [kgCO2 e]). RESULTS: Excluding analgesia, the carbon footprint of a caesarean birth in the UK was 31.21 kgCO2 e, compared with 12.47 kgCO2 e for vaginal birth in hospital and 7.63 kgCO2 e at home. In the Netherlands the carbon footprint of a caesarean was higher (32.96 kgCO2 e), but lower for vaginal birth in hospital and home (10.74 and 6.27 kgCO2 e, respectively). Emissions associated with analgesia for vaginal birth ranged from 0.08 kgCO2 e (with opioid analgesia) to 237.33 kgCO2 e (nitrous oxide with oxygen). Differences in analgesia use resulted in a lower average carbon footprint for vaginal birth in the Netherlands than the UK (11.64 versus 193.26 kgCO2 e). CONCLUSION: The carbon footprint of a caesarean is higher than for a vaginal birth if analgesia is excluded, but this is very sensitive to the analgesia used; use of nitrous oxide with oxygen multiplies the carbon footprint of vaginal birth 25-fold. Alternative methods of pain relief or nitrous oxide destruction systems would lead to a substantial improvement in carbon footprint. Although clinical need and maternal choice are paramount, protocols should consider the environmental impact of different choices.

The effect of smoking initiation in adolescence on the subsequent smoking trajectories of people who smoke, and the role of adverse childhood experiences: Results from the 1958 British cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between smoking initiation in adolescence and subsequent different smoking trajectories of people who smoke, and to examine the combined effect of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and smoking initiation in adolescence on smoking trajectories of people who smoke. DESIGN AND SAMPLE: Data are from 8757 individuals in Great Britain from the birth cohort National Child Development Study and who reported being smokers or former smokers by age 23. MEASUREMENTS: Smoking initiation in adolescence was measured at 16 y and smoking trajectories were derived from smoking variables from ages 23 to 55. We modelled the relationship between smoking initiation in adolescence with or without ACEs and smoking trajectories. RESULTS: Individuals who initiated smoking in adolescence were more likely to quit later than quitting in twenties (RRR quitting in thirties  = 3.43 [2.40; 4.89] p < .001; RRR quitting in forties  = 5.25 [3.38; 8.14] p < .001; RRR quitting in fifties  = 4.48 [2.95; 6.79] p < .001), to relapse (RRR Relapse  = 3.66 [2.82; 4.76] p < .001) and to be persistent smokers (RRR persistent  = 5.25 [3.81; 7.25] p < .001) compared to those who had initiated smoking in young adulthood. These effects were particularly pronounced in case of ACEs. CONCLUSION: Smoking prevention programs aimed at reducing smoking initiation should be promoted to adolescents to limit the burden of smoking, especially for people who have suffered adversity during childhood.

Inequalities in the management of diabetic kidney disease in UK primary care: A cross-sectional analysis of a large primary care database.

AIMS: To determine differences in the management of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) relevant to patient sex, ethnicity and socio-economic group in UK primary care. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis as of January 1, 2019 was undertaken using the IQVIA Medical Research Data dataset, to determine the proportion of people with DKD managed in accordance with national guidelines, stratified by demographics. Robust Poisson regression models were used to calculate adjusted risk ratios (aRR) adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity and social deprivation. RESULTS: Of the 2.3 million participants, 161,278 had type 1 or 2 diabetes, of which 32,905 had DKD. Of people with DKD, 60% had albumin creatinine ratio (ACR) measured, 64% achieved blood pressure (BP, <140/90 mmHg) target, 58% achieved glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c, <58 mmol/mol) target, 68% prescribed renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibitor in the previous year. Compared to men, women were less likely to have creatinine: aRR 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-0.99), ACR: aRR 0.94 (0.92-0.96), BP: aRR 0.98 (0.97-0.99), HbA1c : aRR 0.99 (0.98-0.99) and serum cholesterol: aRR 0.97 (0.96-0.98) measured; achieve BP: aRR 0.95 (0.94-0.98) or total cholesterol (<5 mmol/L) targets: aRR 0.86 (0.84-0.87); or be prescribed RAAS inhibitors: aRR 0.92 (0.90-0.94) or statins: aRR 0.94 (0.92-0.95). Compared to the least deprived areas, people from the most deprived areas were less likely to have BP measurements: aRR 0.98 (0.96-0.99); achieve BP: aRR 0.91 (0.8-0.95) or HbA1c : aRR 0.88 (0.85-0.92) targets, or be prescribed RAAS inhibitors: aRR 0.91 (0.87-0.95). Compared to people of white ethnicity; those of black ethnicity were less likely to be prescribed statins aRR 0.91 (0.85-0.97). CONCLUSIONS: There are unmet needs and inequalities in the management of DKD in the UK. Addressing these could reduce the increasing human and societal cost of managing DKD.

Strong and graded associations between level of asthma severity and all-cause hospital care use and costs in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Hospital admissions account for a large share of the healthcare costs incurred by people with asthma. We assessed the hospital care use and costs associated with asthma severity using the UK Biobank cohort and linked healthcare data. METHODS: Adult participants with asthma at recruitment were classified using their prescription data into mild and moderate-to-severe asthma and matched separately to asthma-free controls by age, sex, ethnicity and location. The associations of asthma, by severity, with the annual number of all-cause hospital admissions, days spent in hospital and hospital costs were estimated over a 10-year follow-up period using three specifications of negative binomial regression models that differed according to the sociodemographic and clinical characteristics adjusted for. RESULTS: Of the 25 031 participants with active asthma, 80% had mild asthma and 20% had moderate-to-severe asthma. Compared with participants with mild asthma, those with moderate-to-severe asthma were on average 2.7 years older, more likely to be current (13.7% vs 10.4%) or previous (40.2% vs 35.2%) smokers, to have a higher body mass index (BMI), and to be suffering from a variety of comorbid diseases. Following adjustments for age, sex, ethnicity and location, people with mild asthma experienced on average 36% more admissions (95% CI 28% to 40%), 43% more days in hospital (95% CI 35% to 51%) and 36% higher hospital costs (95% CI 31% to 41%) annually than asthma-free individuals, while people with moderate-to-severe asthma experienced excesses of 93% (95% CI 81% to 107%), 142% (95% CI 124% to 162%) and 98% (95% CI 88% to 108%), respectively. Further adjustments for socioeconomic deprivation, smoking status, BMI and comorbidities resulted in smaller though still highly significant positive associations, graded by severity, between asthma and hospital use and costs. CONCLUSIONS: Strong graded associations are reported between asthma severity and the extent of hospital use and costs in the UK. These findings could inform future assessments of the value of asthma management interventions.

Socioeconomic inequalities in mental health and wellbeing among UK students during the COVID-19 pandemic: Clarifying underlying mechanisms.

Universities are seeing growing numbers of students with poor mental health and wellbeing. Given that lower socioeconomic status (SES) students typically have poorer mental health and wellbeing than their peers, this may be, in part, caused by an increase in the number of students attending university from lower SES backgrounds. However, less is known about how socioeconomic inequalities in mental health and wellbeing persist within university communities. Research investigating psychosocial factors that contribute to socioeconomic disparities in mental health and wellbeing suggests perceived control, inclusion, and perceived worth to be important underlying mechanisms. However, another strand of research suggests perceived competence may also play a mediating role in this relationship. Consequently, the present research seeks to examine fulfilment of perceived control, inclusion, perceived worth, and competence needs as potential mediators in the relationship between subjective SES and mental health and wellbeing in university students. Below, we report the results of a cross-sectional survey conducted among university students (n = 811) in the UK during a period of COVID-19 restrictions. In line with prior research, we found evidence of socioeconomic inequalities in mental health and wellbeing among students. Further, we found subjective SES predicted perceptions of control, inclusion, and competence. In turn, perceived control and competence predicted both positive and negative mental health and wellbeing, whilst inclusion predicted positive mental health and wellbeing only. Unexpectedly, we found no evidence that perceived worth acts as a mediator in this relationship, independently of perceived control, inclusion, and competence. As academic institutions continue to pursue policies to 'widen participation', they also have a responsibility to understand how socioeconomic inequalities in mental health and wellbeing are perpetuated within the university community. Research in this area marks a first step to improve socioeconomic equality within Higher Education.

Natural history of Duchenne muscular dystrophy in the United Kingdom: A descriptive study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a rare, muscle-degenerative disease predominantly affecting males. Natural history models capture the full disease pathway under current care and combine with estimates of new interventions' effects to assess cost-effectiveness by health technology decision-makers. These models require mortality estimates throughout a patient's lifetime, but rare disease datasets typically contain relatively few patients with short follow-ups. Alternative (published) sources of mortality data may therefore be required. METHODS: The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) was evaluated as a source of mortality and natural history data for future economic evaluations of health technologies for DMD and rare diseases in general in the UK population. This retrospective longitudinal cohort study provides flexible parametric estimates of mortality rates and survival probabilities in the current UK DMD population through primary/secondary records in the CPRD since 1990. It also investigates clinically significant milestones such as corticosteroid use, spinal surgery, and cardiomyopathy in these patients. RESULTS: A total of 1121 male patients were included in the study, observed from 0.7 to 48.9 years. Median life expectancy was 25.64 years (95% confidence interval 24.73, 26.47), consistent with previous global estimates. This has improved to 26.47 (25.16, 27.89) years in patients born after 1990. The median ages at corticosteroid initiation, spinal surgery, ventilation, and cardiomyopathy diagnosis were 6.06 years (5.77, 6.29), 14.79 years (14.29, 15.09), 16.97 years (16.50, 18.31), and 15.26 years (14.22, 16.70), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of mortality in UK-based DMD patients are age-specific in a uniquely large and nationally representative sample from the CPRD.

The cost of primary care consultations associated with long COVID in non-hospitalised adults: a retrospective cohort study using UK primary care data.

BACKGROUND: The economic impact of managing long COVID in primary care is unknown. We estimated the costs of primary care consultations associated with long COVID and explored the relationship between risk factors and costs. METHODS: Data were obtained on non-hospitalised adults from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care database. We used propensity score matching with an incremental cost method to estimate additional primary care consultation costs associated with long COVID (12 weeks after COVID-19) at an individual and UK national level. We applied multivariable regression models to estimate the association between risk factors and consultations costs beyond 12 weeks from acute COVID-19. RESULTS: Based on an analysis of 472,173 patients with COVID-19 and 472,173 unexposed individuals, the annual incremental cost of primary care consultations associated with long COVID was £2.44 per patient and £23,382,452 at the national level. Among patients with COVID-19, a long COVID diagnosis and reporting of longer-term symptoms were associated with a 43% and 44% increase in primary care consultation costs respectively, compared to patients without long COVID symptoms. Older age, female sex, obesity, being from a white ethnic group, comorbidities and prior consultation frequency were all associated with increased primary care consultation costs. CONCLUSIONS: The costs of primary care consultations associated with long COVID in non-hospitalised adults are substantial. Costs are significantly higher among those diagnosed with long COVID, those with long COVID symptoms, older adults, females, and those with obesity and comorbidities.

The effect of combination prevention strategies on HIV incidence among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men in the UK: a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, the number of new HIV diagnoses among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men (GBMSM) has decreased substantially. We aimed to understand the contribution of different interventions in reducing HIV incidence so far; to estimate future HIV incidence with continuation of current policies and with further scaling up of current interventions; and to estimate the maximum additional annual cost that should be spent towards these interventions for them to offer value for money. METHODS: We calibrated a dynamic, individual-based, stochastic simulation model, the HIV Synthesis Model, to multiple sources of data on HIV among GBMSM aged 15 years or older in the UK. Primarily these were routine HIV surveillance data collected by the UK Health Security Agency. We compared HIV incidence in 2022 with the counterfactual incidence: if HIV testing rates stopped increasing in 2012 and the policy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) at diagnosis was not introduced in mid-2015; if pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) was not introduced; if condom use was low from 2012 in all GBMSM, at levels similar to those observed in 1980; and in the first and second scenario combined. We also projected future outcomes under the assumption of continuation of current policies and considering increases in PrEP and HIV testing uptake and a decrease in condomless sex. FINDINGS: Our model estimated a 77% (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 61-88) decline in HIV incidence since around 2014, with an estimated 597 infections ([90% UI 312-956]; 1·1 per 1000 person-years [90% UI 0·6-1·8]) in men aged 15-64 years in 2022. Both PrEP introduction and increased HIV testing with ART initiation at diagnosis each had a substantial effect on HIV incidence. Without PrEP introduction, we estimate there would have been 2·16 times the number of infections that actually occurred (90% UI 1·06-3·75) between 2012 and 2022; without increased HIV testing and ART initiation at diagnosis there would have been 2·18 times the number of infections that actually occurred (1·18-3·60), and if condomless sex was at the levels before the HIV epidemic, there would have been 2·27 times the number of infections that actually occurred (0·9-5·4). If rates of testing, ART use, and PrEP use remain as they are currently, there is a predicted decline in incidence to 388 HIV infections in 2025 (90% UI 226-650) and to 263 (137-433) in 2030. Increases in HIV testing and PrEP use were predicted to accelerate the decline in HIV incidence. Given the quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) benefit and a cost-effectiveness threshold of £30 000 per QALY gained, in order to be cost-effective an additional £1·62 million could be spent per year to increase testing levels by 34% (90% UI 25-46) and PrEP use by 55% (10-107). To achieve that, a 16% reduction in the cost of delivery of testing and PrEP would be required. INTERPRETATION: Combination prevention, including a PrEP strategy, played a major role in the reduction in HIV incidence observed so far in the UK among GBMSM. Continuation of current activities should lead to a continued decline; however, it is unlikely to lead to reaching the target of fewer than 50 HIV infections per year among GBMSM by 2030. It will be important to reduce costs for testing and PrEP for their continued expansion to be cost-effective. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research under its Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme and Medical Research Council-UK Research and Innovation.

Cost of the COVID-19 pandemic versus the cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies in EU/UK/OECD: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: The economic burden of COVID-19 pandemic is substantial, with both direct and indirect costs playing a significant role. DESIGN: A systematic literature review was conducted to estimate the cost of the COVID-19 pandemic and the cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical or non-pharmaceutical interventions. All cost data were adjusted to the 2021 Euro, and interventions compared with null. DATA SOURCES: Ovid MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from January 2020 through 22 April 2021. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies regarding COVID-19 outbreak or public health preparedness measures or interventions with outcome measures related to the direct and indirect costs for disease and preparedness and/or response in countries of the European Union (EU), the European Economic Area (EEA), the UK and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) of all relevant epidemiological designs which estimate cost within the selected time frame were considered eligible. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Studies were searched, screened and coded independently by two reviewers with high measure of inter-rater agreement. Data were extracted to a predefined data extraction sheet. The risk of bias was assessed using the Consensus on Health Economic Criteria checklist. RESULTS: We included data from 41 economic studies. Ten studies evaluated the cost of the COVID-19 pandemic, while 31 assessed the cost-benefit of public health surveillance, preparedness and response measures. Overall, the economic burden of the COVID-19 pandemic was found to be substantial. Community screening, bed provision policies, investing in personal-protective-equipment and vaccination strategies were cost-effective. Physical distancing measures were associated with health benefits; however, their cost-effectiveness was dependent on the duration, compliance and the phase of the epidemic in which it was implemented. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 pandemic is associated with substantial short-term and long-term economic costs to healthcare systems, payers and societies, while interventions including testing and screening policies, vaccination and physical distancing policies were identified as those presenting cost-effective options to deal with the pandemic, dependent on population vaccination and the Re at the stage of the pandemic.

Changes in economic activity and mental distress among young adults during the COVID-19 pandemic: Differences between the first and second infection waves in the UK.

BACKGROUND: While infection rates, lockdown policies, and labor market conditions substantially varied across COVID-19 waves, the majority of evidence on young adults' mental health remains focused on initial responses in early 2020. The variability of the relationship between economic activity and mental health over time therefore remains poorly understood in this age group. METHODS: Using linear mixed models, we investigated the relationship between current activity and changes in activity and mental distress (GHQ-12) among 1,390 young adults aged 16-34 via the UK Household Longitudinal Study COVID-19 survey. The association was explored in the first (from April to July 2020) and second (from September 2020 to March 2021) infection waves. Current activity was defined as "not working", "working <17.5 hours/week", "17.5-35 hours/week", and "> = 35 hours/week". Changes in activity were derived from current and pre-pandemic working hours and divided into four categories: "working with no reduced hours", "working fewer hours", "no longer working", and "did not work before the pandemic". RESULTS: During the first wave, no association reached statistical significance. During the second wave: 1) compared to "currently not working", working 35 or more hours was associated with decreased distress (b = -1.54; 95%CI -2.39, -0.69) and working less than 17.5 hours was not (b = -0.62; 95%CI -1.66, 0.41); 2) compared to "working with no reduced hours compared with before the outbreak", no longer working was associated with increased distress (b = 1.58, 95%CI 0.61, 2.55) and working with reduced hours was not (b = 0.47, 95%CI -0.24, 1.17). CONCLUSION: Above the mental health inequalities experienced at the start of the pandemic, full-time work-even with variation in work hours-continued to be a protective factor against mental distress among young adults during the second wave in the UK. Stable, full-time work can better support this age group's mental well-being over time.